is an ads and marketing based company helping businesses elicit maximum clicks @ minimum cost. AdEase is an ad infrastructure to help businesses promote themselves easily, effectively, and economically. The interplay of 3 AI modules - Design, Dispense, and Decipher, come together to make it this an end-to-end 3 step process digital advertising solution for all.
- To understand the per page view report for different wikipedia pages for 550 days. Dataset
- To forecast the number of views to predict and optimize the ad placement for clients
- To provide clients (different regions) with data on how their ads will perform on pages in different languages
Steps Performed: Link to Code
- Data Pre-processing
- Exploratory Data Analysis
- Feature Engineering
- Data Aggregation by Language
- Graphical Data Analysis including ACF & PACF plots
- Time Series Decomposition - Trend, Seasonality, and Residual
- Stationarity Tests - Dickey-Fuller Test
- Exploring different forecasting techniques to acheive MAPE < 5%
i. Simple Exponential Smoothing
ii. Double Exponential Smoothing
iii. Triple Exponential Smoothing
iv. Auto Regression, Moving Average, ARIMA, SARIMA, and SARIMAX models
v. Facebook Prophet Library
- There are also mediawiki & commons.wikimedia pages that host media are available in the dataset
- Of the pages from 7 different languages, English has the highest proportion, closely followed by Japanese. Rest of the languages roughly have same proportion of ~12%
- AccessOrigin is spider for ~24% of the pages and all-agents for ~76%
- AccessType is all-acess for about 50% of the pages. Then for desktop & mobile-web is ~25% each
- During the months of August 2016, there is a spike in daily average views of both English & Russian pages
- Also, a spike is observed in Nov,2016. This time for pages in Spanish, Russian, and German as well
- English average views seem to have trend & seasonality where as other languages have seasonality mostly
- In daily median views, Spanish language pages seem to be higher than other language pages
- Spanish, Russian, and English median daily views had a drop.
- In later months of 2016, english pages median daily views is on part with that of Spanish
- English has high average daily views compared to other languages. Recommend running more ads in English pages
- There are more than 50% of pages with all-access compared to desktop & mobile-web alone
- Knowing the language for mediawiki & commons.wikimedia would enhance our training data further
- Like campaign data for English pages, availability of such exogenous data would improve model predictions
- With more time and resources, we can experiment with prophet parameters to bring better MAPE values.